Strange thought, you say? Well, not according to Leland R. Kaiser, M.P.H., Ph.D., a nationally recognized futurist and authority on the changing American health care system. Dr. Kaiser believes that the experience you have going to the doctor in the future will be every bit as important as the cost and the quality of care you receive. When large, integrated healthcare delivery systems offering essentially the same price and quality come to dominate the American landscape, medical care in the U.S. will have reached true commodity status. Such health systems will put proportionately more effort into enhancing the patient experience, and medicine will become an experiential industry. Indeed, says Kaiser, going to the doctor in the future will be a little like going to Disneyland or Wal-Mart, and a lot like going to a native American healer or medicine man.

For sure, medicine will be high tech, utilizing state-of-the-art computer databases and advanced procedures, including those which rebuild old, worn and damaged body parts from the atomic level up (i.e., nanotechnology). It will also be "high touch" - - with tomorrow's primary care physician combining the roles of healer, teacher, counselor, and habitat architect and re-designer. Dr. Kaiser thinks that technology is the motor of change in medicine, and that current healthcare reform efforts in Washington, D.C. miss the mark, because they're driven from the top down rather than from the bottom up (i.e., at the local community level). If we think we're going to spend less on medical care in the future, we're tragically misinformed, he says. The silver lining in the dark cloud: we'll all live to be 115 - 120 in good health.

Dr. Kaiser is president of Kaiser and Associates, a firm providing education and management consulting services to the health care industry. He is a prolific author whose articles have appeared in Medical Economics, Medical Group Management Journal, Healthcare Forum, Hospitals, and many other publications. He is also an innovator in the field of electronic teaching technologies. He obtained his M.P.H. from The University of Pittsburgh and his doctorate from the University of Denver. For more information, contact: Kaiser & Associates, P.O. Box 339, Brighton, Colorado 80601, (303) 659- 8814, FAX: (303) 659- 7995.

Joel R. Cooper
The Medical Reporter/Joel R. Cooper Creative Services
Medical & Healthcare writing, editing and reporting
P.O. Box 370314
Denver, CO 80237
Telephone: (303) 337-6299; FAX: (303) 337- 9201
e-mail: jcooper@medreport.com

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